24.03.2025 (Monday)

Dario Spano (University of Warwick)
24 Mar at 14:00 - 15:00
KCL, Strand - S-3.18

Motivated by statistical applications, I will illustrate aspects of excursion theory for the Wright--Fisher diffusion with recurrent mutation, a fundamental model playing a central role in population genetics. The structure is intermediate between the classical excursion theory, where all excursions begin and end at a single point, and the more general approach considering excursions of processes from general sets. Since the Wright--Fisher diffusion has two boundary points, it is natural to construct excursions which start from a specified boundary point, and end at one of two boundary points which determine the next starting point. In order to do this we study the killed Wright--Fisher diffusion, which is sent to a cemetery state whenever it hits either endpoint. Several identities for excursion measures and hitting time distributions will be described both via special function theory and via the coalescent dual.

Posted by samuel.g.johnston@kcl.ac.uk